Daily market Comments - January 31, 2009  8:22 PM

More interesting facts! It seems lots of folks want to move...

In the interest of providing content you might not see anywhere else, I scour various investment periodicals, websites, etc. to let you know about things going on in the world that are interesting... or at least amusing.

Whether some of these facts are "useful" is in the mind of you, the reader. So let me know what you think of what I'm writing about here... if I should continue, if you'd rather read about something else, etc. I'll try to oblige.

Anyway, I just read another short article that's at least half-way intriguing.

It seems that lots of people would rather live someplace else other than where they are now. In a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, it was found that a full 50% of U.S. residents surveyed would like to move and live somewhere else.

The most desirable city to live (given the choice of the 30 largest cities)?

Denver. Followed by San Diego and Seattle.

The least popular?

Detroit. Followed by Cleveland and Cincinnati.

Also, it seems low-priced burgers are more popular than high-priced coffee. The survey indicated more people would rather live where there are more McDonald's locations than in one with more Starbucks.

Finally, the survey found out that 70% of rural men were content where they live, vs. just 50% of the rural women.

Fun stuff!

The stock market was no fun Friday, with the Dow collapsing another 148 points, and the Nasdaq down 31.42.

The main catalyst seems to be a bad GDP report.

According to MarketWatch:

"The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, Commerce Department data show. The decline in gross domestic product would have been worse except that the government counts an unwanted buildup of goods on store shelves as growth. The data indicate particular weakness in consumer spending."

That's the worst report since 1982. In other words, in the past 27 years.

But the year 1982 reminds me of something else. Wasn't that year the kickoff of one of the biggest bull market moves in history? Hmmm...

Anyway, some of these small-fry biotech companies are simply ignoring the rest of the market - bull or bear - and marching (up) to the beat of their own drummer.

Another beauty of an ARM Play set up on one of those stocks today. It powered up over 46% on no news that I could see, on humongous relative volume for this virtually unknown stock. I'm about to name that stock for my Premium Members.

Daily market Comments - January 29, 2009  6:58 PM

Well, it's official... contented cows DO give more milk...

I know lots of you have stayed up nights wondering about this, but as a certain commercial claims, it turns out that happy cows do actually produce more milk.

A recent study by the U.K.'s Newcastle University says that cows with names like "Daisy" and "Buttercup" produce as many as 500 pints more milk a year than cows without names.

The study claims that "just as people respond better to a personal touch, cows also feel happier and more relaxed if they are given more attention."

What a mooving discovery that is!

Evidently nothing gave the stock market much to be contented about today, since the DJIA plummeted over 226 points, and the Nasdaq cratered 50.5. More job losses seemed to be the catalyst for the selloff today. And yesterday's great gains were wiped out today. So much for the new bullish trend.

But there is a small subsector within the biotech industry that has exploded in value over the past few days. The handful of stocks ran up so fast it was hard to find a decent entry point. In those cases, I look for the inevitable pullback and then for a Holy Grail or an ARM Play to set up.

A beauty of an ARM Play did set up on one of those stocks today. It reversed almost 13% on a Bullish Engulfing pattern after its recent price explosion, and could be off to the races again. I'm about to name the stock for my Premium Members.

Daily market Comments - January 28, 2009  9:10 PM

Big day in the stock market today...

Lots of big things going on in the market today, so let's just get right to it...

The first big things were the point gains in all the major indices. The DJIA was up a solid 200.72 points, or 2.46%. But the Nasdaq did even better, up a tidy 53.44 points, or 3.55%.

The second big item probably caused those big index point gains. The Fed came out with a statement that it would basically leave interest rates alone for now, at their historically low levels (from near zero to 0.25%). The Fed also said it was "prepared" to buy Treasurys "if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets."

The third big thing - again partly caused by the Fed's comments, was the virtual across-the-board rebound of financial stocks. Some to the tune of 30 - 65%. Those are some spicy one-day returns!

And the final big item represented by today's market action is the fact that today could be a possible "follow-through day" for the turnaround rally day of 1/21/09. I've heard that all new bull markets in history have ALWAYS HAD a high-volume, big point follow-through day.

So all things considered, with these "Big Things" (and actually POSITIVE things, finally) hitting the market today, I'm thinking we should be bullish for now.

I'm certainly bullish on the stock I'm about to name below for my Premium Members. It's in that bombed-out financial stock sector, and reversed over 36% today on a beauty of a Morning Star pattern. I think it has much more upside to come on this financial rebound.

Daily market Comments - January 26, 2009  11:44 PM

Warning, Will Robinson! Warning!

I may be showing my age a little here, but that's the phrase heard quite often from the old '60's TV show "Lost In Space." Who was famous for uttering the phrase?

It came from The Robot.

The Robot had no name, but was a Model B-9, Class M-3 General Utility Non-Theorizing Environmental Control Robot.

Pretty cool, for that time period.

Anyway, I immediately thought of that phrase uttered by The Robot when I read a recent article entitled "Remote patrol can net intruder."

Seems there's this new robot developed by a Japanese venture firm and a security company that can be commanded from a cell phone to throw a net to trap suspected intruders.

The robot can also capture video images of the intruders and send the video to the owner's cell phone. The owner can even tell the robot to chase the intruders! And the owner can even make the robot "talk" by speaking through a microphone.

Imagine the intruders shock and awe at that prospect. Bet they never hit THAT house again!

The robot will cost under $5,600.

So what does that have to do with the stock market?

I don't have a clue, but thought this was just a little funny.

Anyway, the market was a roller coaster again today, with the Dow giving up triple-digit returns to end up just 38.47. The Nasdaq did a little better percentage-wise, up 12.17.

A few stocks looking good right now are SYNA (up nicely off a Doji from Friday), FRPT (which might be about to take off again), and CENTA (nice recent relative strength there for sure).

Golds are still ultra-strong, with MDW looking "not overbought" there.

But I'm about to name a bombed-out stock in the Retail sector for my paying Members that "rose from the dead" today over 40% on huge volume, and could have much more upside in store.

Daily market Comments - January 24, 2009  6:03 PM

What next? Now you don't even have to play your own video games...

I recently read a short article that amazed me.

Seems there's a new video game out (patented by Nintendo) that allows players to turn over control to "virtual players" modeled after themselves. These "virtual players" supposedly analyze the performance of their human counterparts and seek to mimic their skill levels. The game will also let players skip to particular scenes.

What's Nintendo's purpose behind all this? Well, the company hopes the changes will make its products appeal more to "casual" gamers.

Now, at least a couple of ideas immediately occurred to me when I read that article.

First, have we come to the point where we are too lazy to play our own video games? And how fun can that be, just watching an automatron gizmo play at "your current skill level." If it were me playing these "virtual games", I would at least want the gadget to analyze my play, and suggest how I might have played better along the way. Jeez.

Also, why would someone want to be a "causal gamer" anyway? I'm either "in the game" or not playing at all.

But again, that's just me I guess.

And in this grand game of the stock market, it's not wise to be a "casual player." If you're in the game to make serious investment returns and trading profits, you've got to stay on top of things as much as possible.

I've "been there, done that" on the other side... where I've gotten complacent about watching the market, with solid returns just coming "too easy", so why bother keeping a daily watch on what's going on, etc.

And that's when I've been burned the most by the market. The stock market acts like a "jealous mistress" at times... one that does NOT like to be ignored! If I take my eye off her, almost invariably, that's when my best stocks take a nosedive, and I lose out on some truly great returns.

(Now, I'm a happily married man, so take the "jealous mistress" metaphor with a grain of salt. But I hope you get my point).

So I've been trying to stay on top of this market, and give the best, short but sweet analysis of what I'm seeing each day.

And right now, I'm still seeing more of the same type of action I've been reporting for awhile. The Dow once again tested that "magic" area of 8,000, and once again bounced off of it. Friday's chart shows a Doji / Hammer signal, usually indicative of bottoming action.

The Nasdaq again tested its support level around 1,450. This chart is a tad more bullish than the Dow's, with a Bullish Engulfing candle of the previous day's Doji.

There is a certain subsector within the biotech industry showing some extremely strong action lately. Stocks in this sector have moved up 30-50% in just the last few days. And one of these stocks had some HUGE NEWS on Friday, related to a key FDA approval. I'm about to name the stock for my Members.

Daily market Comments - January 23, 2009  12:32 AM

And I thought it was just me...

You know, I consider myself a pretty smart guy, in some ways.

People who know me usually want me on their team whenever we play Trivial Pursuit, for example. I can usually knock out the Sunday newspaper Jumble puzzle in a few minutes. And... although it sometimes takes me a while... I WILL work the Sunday Level 5 Sudoku puzzle just about every time (I sometimes make a careless mistake, and just don't want to start all over again).

But I have some sort of mental block in reading directions of how to set up mechanical gadgets, like a feature-rich cell phone. Or even putting together an artificial Christmas tree (I've been known to utter some very un-Christmas-like verbiage when things haven't "go my way" in past years. We finally resorted to purchasing one of those trees with the lights already strung on them, that you just hook up the tree parts and plug all the plugs in, and I've been a happy camper ever since).

Let's go back to that feature-rich cell phone example. Turns out I'm not the only one having difficulty there.

According to a survey by mobile phone company MFormation, more than 60% of mobile phone users in the U.S. and the U.K. think setting up a new handset is as challenging as moving bank accounts.

85% of users say they are frustrated by learning functions of the new phones, and many spend more than an hour to set up phones even when the manuals say it takes only 15 minutes. (I can REALLY relate to that part).

The study also said some users simply give up certain functions like sending pictures and emails via phones when they could not be set up easily.

Maybe we should just go back to "talking" and "listening" over the phone, and keep things simple.

Anyway, the market didn't exactly make things simple for us to figure out what it wanted to do today. It ended down, but it could have been a lot worse.

For the Dow, that 8,000 area seems to be the "magic number" for the base bottom, at least for the time being. It got tested again today, but the index recovered a bit to form a Hammer-like candlestick at the end of the day.

The Nasdaq's support level seems to be around 1,450. The chart shows a Doji / Spinning Top off that area today.

I've found a nice Baffle Play for my Members this evening. This stock sold for $30 back in mid-2005, and is now less than a buck. But it almost doubled today, and this could be the start of a nice move for this tremendously oversold stock.

Daily market Comments - January 21, 2009  10:25 PM

"If you don't like the market, just wait a day..."

There's an old saying in Houston about the weather.

It changes so quickly, so often, the saying is...

"If you don't like the weather, just wait a minute."

A slight exaggeration perhaps, but when the low temperature of one day is in the 30's and the next in the 60's, welll... the saying is not too far off.

And based on the stock market action of the past two days, you could say something very similar about that...

"If you don't like the market, just wait a day."

Indeed, after going into what looked like a panic-selling freefall yesterday, the stock market turned on a dime today and made most of the breathtaking losses back, on brisk volume.

The Dow recovered a tad over 279 points today, while the Nasdaq bounced 66 and change. Helping the market (along with the Tech sector) was surprisingly good results from market bellweather IBM. Its chart is a beauty, with an 11.51% pop to the upside out of a nice Bullish Kicker Gap. Volume was huge on the move. That may be the catalyst the market needs to get a sustained rally going.

Obviously, with the market in such a good mood today, I'm finding some fine charts this evening. That's the only "downside" of a good market day... there are so many great chart possibilities, it's hard to pick the "best" one to recommend! But I suppose that's a good problem to have.

And I think I've found a good one. It's a strong combination of an RSVP (Rare Spike on Volume and Price) and a MONSTAR (Morning Star on Steroids). That's a solid "1-2" punch, and more upside should be ahead for this stock, even though it was up over 32% today on huge volume. I'll name the stock for my Members tonight.

Daily market Comments - January 20, 2009  8:32 PM

The Market Gives Obama a Rodney Dangerfield Reception Today

One of my favorite comedians of all time was Rodney Dangerfield.

I used to crack up just watching his antics and facial expressions on stage as he delivered hilarious one-liner after another. His constant tie-pulling as he delivered punch line after punch line, and the bug-eyed look on his face as he told his jokes just had me in stitches most of the time.

One of his most famous "shticks" always began with something like "I tell ya, I don't get no respect, no respect at all..." He would then regale his audience with "reasons why" that was true, with the audience usually howling with laughter as the short stories came out.

Here's a quick one for your enjoyment...

"I tell ya, I get no respect from anyone. I bought a cemetery plot. The guy said, "There goes the neighborhood!"

Yeah, I really miss ole Rodney. May he rest in peace.

And speaking of "getting no respect"...

Newly inaugurated President Barrack Obama certainly got none from the stock market today. The Dow swan-dived over 332 points, while the Nasdaq tanked 88.47. It was not pretty, just a downhill slide all day long. Financial woes reared their ugly head once again, and it was "Katy bar the door" after that.

Nope. No respect for Obama. None at all.

But I did manage to find a handful of "respectful" charts today.

The ARM Play I'm about to name certainly has one of those today. The stock recently had back to back gains of over 29% and 51% before succumbing to profit-taking. But the small-cap stock was up over 20% today in a horrible market, and may be about to blast to the upside once again. I'll tell my Members all about tonight.

Daily market Comments - January 15, 2009  7:20 PM

Two Google Searches Are Like Boiling A Kettle?

Yes, according to a recent report by the U.K.'s Sunday Times that cites Harvard University research.

Huh?

OK, here's how it works (supposedly)...

Two Google searches from a desktop PC generates seven grams of carbon dioxide, or the same amount as boiling a kettle. The CO2 is generated because search requests go to several servers, and they "compete" against each other to get the job done, experts say.

Google reportedly disputes the finding, claiming the CO2 generated by two searches is a tiny 0.4 grams.

To me, this definitely proves one thing...

Some folks simply have too much time on their hands.

I'd rather spend my time finding great trade setups. I think I've found a "doozy" this evening.

Here's a stock that you could have picked up for a buck and change in early December, and it closed today at over 7 bucks. You actually probably would recognize the stock (or at least the device it makes) if I mentioned it.

And that's what I'm about to do for my Members tonight...

Daily market Comments - January 14, 2009  11:08 PM

Are You A "Mouse Potato", Like Me?

The latest business conditions are so demanding, new words and terms are being invented to describe those hardy souls trying to make the best of it, especially small-business owners and other entrepreneurs.

For example, 62% of small-business owners said in a recent survey they're turning into "mouse potatoes" who constantly work at their PC.

Sounds familiar.

I'm pretty much at my PC all day long (and most of the evening hours - I do stop for the dinner hour though)... watching the market and individual stock action during the day (and making comments in several stock trading chat rooms I'm in), and writing my market comments and other articles at night.

Also, that same survey discovered that two-thirds of the respondents eat and work at the same time. One in five also replace breakfast with a "deskfast" (another new word) to maximize productivity.

Me again.

I have my morning "deskfast" - a bowl of cereal (usually Honey-Nut Cheerios, but I'm trying out Just Bunches now) in front of my PC while reading my email and doing other tasks.

Finally, the survey went on to say that even though times are tough right now, the majority of those surveyed are confident that they'll weather the storm. Fully 84% said they'll be in business this time next year in its current form, and 3/4 of them still believe in the "American Dream."

Again, me to a "T". And I hope you as well.

Let's see if I can find a stock for my Members to make that "American Dream" a little closer for us...

Daily market Comments - January 12, 2009  7:11 PM

How To Invest In A Recession

A major front-page headline in today's Investor's Business Daily states "524,000 Jobs Lost In Dec., Jobless Rate At 16-Yr High 7.2%."

The sub-headlines were bleak as well.

"Payrolls Fell 2.6 Mil in '08."

"Plunge in hours worked signals Q4 GDP debacle, heavy layoffs in early '09."

Obviously, we may be facing one of the worst recessions we've ever seen.

Lots of folks have simply "given up" on the whole concept of trying to invest in this dire scenario. But that could be a mistake.

If you think about it, there could be LOTS of opportunities to make solid investments in a recession... even as bad as the one we're in right now.

Not convinced?

Well, let's look at what people might decide to do in a down economy...

For one thing, "frugality" will probably become a much more common word (and action) in 2009 than it has in a long time. Almost everybody (except perhaps the super-rich) will be pinching pennies tighter than they ever have before.

But folks still need at least the "basics" of life. Food, clothes, make-up, etc.

That fact should help the "thrift" stores. Of course, Wal Mart comes to mind immediately, and also Family Dollar Stores, 99 Cents Only, Tuesday Morning, Big Lots and Dollar Tree Stores may be worth a look.

Also, when some folks get laid off, they decide to go back to school to enhance or broaden their skill-sets and be ready for the eventual rebound of the economy.

In that area, I would look at the "For-Profit" Education sector. In fact, four out of the top five best-performing stocks last Friday in an IBD database were from that sector. Some stocks to look at there are Apollo Group, Capella Education, ITT Educational Services and DeVry.

OK, let's see... what else? Oh, I know.

Not too many people will be purchasing new cars this year, I would imagine. They'll be keeping their old "clunkers" for as long as possible.

That should help the Automobile Aftermarket companies, otherwise known as Auto Parts and Accessories. Some possible names there are Autozone, O'Reilly Automotive, Advance Auto Parts, Monro Muffler & Brake, and Midas. Also take a look at the used car lot stocks like America's Car-Mart and AutoNation.

Finally, I doubt if lots of folks will be able to afford some of the "finer-dining" restaurants, so good old McDonald's might be a good investment there.

Bottom line, even in a horrid recession, there's no reason to bury your head in the sand and try to wait it out. There are ALWAYS opportunities to make big gains in any market.

For example, I'm about to name a stock that was up 63% today, exploding after weeks of flat-lined trading. It may have much more to go on the upside...

Daily market Comments - January 10, 2009  12:38 PM

The meaning of life, the Three Stooges, and the stock market

I was reading a book recently on how to write fiction.

One of the subchapter heads attracted my attention immediately. It was "The Meaning of Life and the Three Stooges."

How could you NOT stop what you're doing and read at least a few paragraphs with a heading like that?

Anyway, the author goes on to explain the difference between "tragedy" and "comedy" - basically claiming the distinction is that tragedy is a plot of the "body" and comedy is a plot of the "mind."

The author states that "A great comedic writer once said 'Dying is easy; comedy is hard.' Writing high drama is easy by comparison. No doubt about it, being funny is tough. The funniest line in the world can come off totally flat if told incorrectly."

Now, the "punch line" to this will come a little later, since it ties everything together quite well.

As far as the Three Stooges are concerned...

Some critics claim "slapstick" comedy doesn't really appeal to the mind. Take the physical humor of the Three Stooges. Not very intellectual, to be sure.

But next time you catch a Stooges movie or film clip -- take careful note of the types of people they throw the pies into the faces of. They are usually the "prim and proper matron, the mortgage banker, all those stiff-shirted characters we live with daily." (How many mortgage bankers would you like to see a pie in the face of TODAY?)

The Three Stooges comedy, albeit very physical... "lampoons society and its institutions." So there is a little mind-play going on there.

As far as the meaning of life...

Freud tried (unsuccessfully) to analyze humor and what it means to the human being, and to the "meaning of life." Also, again according to the author of the book... "A true comic novel, Anthony Burgess pointed out, was the one that had to do with people's recognition of their unimportance in the universe. Heady stuff for the Three Stooges."

So what does all this have to do with the stock market?

It involves the "punch line" I mentioned above.

In comedy, whether in live joke-telling or in print, and perhaps in the meaning of life itself...

Timing Is Everything!

And that's certainly true for the stock market as well.

Maybe you've always heard "you can't time the stock market." I used to believe that myself.

But once I intensely studied and began applying Japanese Candlesticks analysis (and am still learning new facets and nuances each and every day) to my investing and trading strategies, I quickly realized that market timing CAN be done, and can be done easily... using this 400+ year-old system. I can't imagine trading without it now.

Once you master Japanese Candlestick analysis (even the most basic aspects of it), market reversals (both tops, bottoms and continuations) will stick out like a sore thumb to you. You'll be able to TIME THE MARKET.

And remember... in life, comedy and the stock market...

Timing Is Everything!

In the stock market, that can apply on many different levels.

For instance, the charts of the major market indexes are not very encouraging right now. It seems the market is starting to respond negatively again on bad news, instead of sloughing it off like it was doing for a while.

But that does not mean there's no way to make major gains in the market, even when the Dow is down triple digits. I routinely find dozens of stocks up 30% and more each and every day. My Trade Your Way to Wealth Premium Members (Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play service -- soon to be renamed "The Stock Market Miracle Speculator Club") get a list of the "best of the best" of those stocks each day.

And I use Japanese Candlesticks to analyze these charts.

I found some SUPERB charts from Friday's analysis. My Members will get the list now.

And... one last time...

Timing Is Everything!

Daily market Comments - January 08, 2009  6:06 PM

Scientists Create A Mind Reader

I love those "Weird Science" and other strange news stories you see on the Internet.

Here's a good one I found today...

In one of the "weirdest" science news stories of 2008, it was reported that Japanese researchers have developed a system for figuring out what you're thinking of... what your brain is visualizing. And this is no "pick a card, any card" trick either.

In one experiment, they flashed letters on a screen, recorded the brain patterns of people who were staring at the screen, and then fed the data into a computer. The software deciphered the rough shapes of the letters: N-E-U-R-O-N, which was exactly the word shown on the screen. By the way, Neuron is the name of the journal in which the research was published.

The researchers claimed the technology could be used as communication for people who cannot speak, or help visualize hallucinations to aid doctors and mental health agents as an aid for medical treatment. Or perhaps the medical guys and gals could just use the visualizations for their own amusement. (Come on - some doctors are easily amused!)

Theoretically, the technology can reveal what you're thinking about, or dreaming about. Is that totally weird ... or totally scary? You be the judge.

Now, if we just had a contraption that could "read the mind" of the stock market, and spit out the exact set of stocks we should buy that day!

But since we don't have that, I'll continue to do my best to "Kreskin-ize" the stock market myself, and feed you the highest probability plays of the day.

It would not have hurt a bit to be somewhat of a market "mind reader" today. While the Dow did its best to end up in the green, it did not quite make it. It ended down a little over 27 points, and its chart looked like the path of a drunken sailor all day.

The Nasdaq was a little more orderly, as buying came in on a plethora of tech stocks. That index ended the day up almost 18 points.

Anyway, I need to get back to my market mind reading...

Daily market Comments - January 07, 2009  10:54 PM

Could this be the best occupation for 2009?

Here's a rarity in today's lousy economy.

There's a occupation that's in such high demand, those having the qualifications are actually being offered PERKS from companies in dire need of their services.

What do you think that cherished occupation is?

Could it be some new sort of computer scientist? Someone well-versed in how to "green-itize" polluting companies? Or maybe something in the entertainment industry to help us take our collective minds off of the hellish economic news we're being bombarded with every day?

Nope. Ir's none of those.

The occupation in uber-demand right now is none other than...

Nurses.

Yes, that's right. Nurses are in such high demand right now that certain health facilities are offering them flat-screen TVs, GPS devices, and $1,000 gift cards to hire on. There's a nationwide shortage of them, and competition for their services is fierce.

Residential Home Health in Michigan offers nurses a chance to win a free one-year lease of an SUV. And Milwaukee's Wheaton Franciscan Healthcare gives applicants $50 gas cards just for interviewing!

The Labor Dept. expects 233,000 new positions for registered nurses to be created each year through 2016.

So if you're one of the unfortunate ones who are now jobless, this might be something to think about.

And you might want to look into a few of the strongest stocks of some of those growing companies needing nurses and home health aides so badly. Gentiva Health Services (GTIV), Amedisys (AMED), LHC Group (LHCG) and Almost Family (AFAM) come to mind there.

Well, while it may be true that nurses are in high demand... stocks were certainly NOT in the same situation today.

The Dow plummeted over 245 points, while the Nasdaq swooned a tad over 53. Obviously, both indexes need "nursing" back to health quickly.

Daily market Comments - January 06, 2009  9:15 PM

It's a New Year! And you know what that means...

It's a New Year! And you know what that means... everybody and their dog will be offering their "set in stone" predictions for the year...

You've probably started to see it already.

Each year at this time, as the previous year's calendars are trashed and new ones are magnetized to millions of refrigerators across America, hundreds of "pundits" in one expertise or another feel it is extremely important to offer their prognostications for the New Year.

From what movie or rock stars will be "in" or "out" this year, to what we "should" or "should not" be wearing, you name it... SOMEONE will be making some sort of prediction one way or another.

And that goes for the financial markets as well.

Take the stock market.

I've already seen lots of market optimists stating without any hesitation that the recession we seem to be mired in right now will play itself out over the next six to nine months. And then everything will be rosy again.

But on the other side of the coin, I've also seen Grinch-like market curmudgeons pontificating we're heading towards Great Depression II, with all the dire consequences involved. These happy souls see us in a nasty bear market for the next ten years, at least!

So where do I stand on all this?

Well, if you've followed me for any length of time, you'll know that I lean towards the optimistic, bullish side of things in general. Yeah, the economy is in bad shape, but we've been in MUCH more dire straits before.

Just take a look at the unemployment rate now vs. the last Great Depression. It's not even close! We're talking about a 6.7% rate now (according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics) to an almost unbelievable 25% during Great Depression I. And the 50-year historical unemployment rate is 5.97% - not too far off from where we are right now.

Can it get worse? Sure.

But 25%? C'mon. I think even OUR government is smart enough to keep us from hitting that astronomical amount of unemployment. Like a headline in today's Investor's Business Daily states: "The Sky May Be Lower But It Isn't Falling."

And going back to the stock market, we may have bottomed already. In fact, I think we're in a new uptrend.

Take a look at a daily candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to see what I mean. I'm seeing a clear bottom on November 21, 2008 with the Bullish Engulfing signal on high volume. We've seen "higher lows" on each pullback attempt since then. Not to mention the Reverse Head and Shoulders bottoming formation from our Technical Analysis lessons.

Which brings me to my final point I'd like to make about market predictions at this stage. And that is this...

There's no real harm in reading as many of them as you come across. They make for (sometimes) interesting and provocative reading. But as far as using them in any way to improve your financial condition, for the most part, here's my recommendation...

Ignore Each And Every One Of Them!

They hardly ever come true - at least across the board. Sure, once or twice some pundit will hit the nail on the head, but then again...

A Stopped Clock Is Exactly Right Twice A Day!

And anyway, you simply don't need some fortune telling stock market psychic to tell you what to do. The market itself will tell you that, if you know what to pay attention to.

I'll help you with that as much as possible in 2009, so stay tuned...

Things are about to become VERY interesting!