Daily market Comments - July 31, 2008  6:14 PM

OK, pass the Dramamine again...

This rocking and rolling summer market keeps doing it to us.

After the sweet 452 point move over the past two days, the DJIA gave back almost half that today with a 205 point swoon. The Nasdaq, however, barely batted an eye, and was down a miniscule 4 points and change.

At the end of the day, the charts of both these major market indices resembled the roller coasters at certain summer amusement parks, perhaps where lots of traders these days wish they could be.

I'm sure there's more fun there than in trying to negotiate this volatile, "bucking bronco" summer market we're stuck in the middle of here.

Having said all that, the market just didn't "seem" all that bad today. Lots of Biotech stocks either extended their runs, or started new ones. That's still the hottest place to be right now it seems. That and the Medical Equipment and Appliances area.

I'm still on the lookout for some bombed-out Financial stock speculations though. I think I've found a "doozy" tonight for my paid Members (see below).

Daily market Comments - July 30, 2008  5:02 PM

The DJIA is up over 450 points in the last two days... sweet!

It looks like this market just wants to go up now.

Even a spike in crude oil couldn't dampen the spirits of traders today, who forced the Dow up another 186 points on top of the 266 points yesterday. Nice!

Yesterday marked the so-called "follow-through" day of the new rally, so we are now considered to be in a new uptrend.

According to Investor's Business Daily newspaper, no bull market in Wall Street history has ever NOT started off with such a follow-through day. However, all follow-through days are not necessarily followed by bull markets.

But this sure feels and looks like a double bottom in the markets, and I strongly feel a summer rally comes next.

Energy stocks were especially active today on the upside, but so was just about every other sector in the market! That's why the market just has that bullish "feel" about it.

My latest pick was up 75% today from the close yesterday. And tonight I have a rare Baffle Play (for paid Members) that could easily do the same thing tomorrow.

Daily market Comments - July 29, 2008  9:24 PM

Anyone else besides me getting whiplash from this market?

One day the DJIA is down 240 points.

The next day it's UP 266! It's a Dramamine market for sure.

Most things went up across the board today, but especially strong were the Banks, Airlines (with the further drop in the price of crude oil), Steels, and - perhaps in anticipation of a good earnings announcement from FSLR after hours - the Solars again.

Once again, we got our Turrnaround Tuesday! In spades.

Daily market Comments - July 28, 2008  4:16 PM

But here we are right back at "Bear Market Monday"...

The bears were "back in town" today, big time. It was ugly.

Both the DJIA and the Nasdaq were down over 2%. The DJIA shed almost 240 points and the Nas 46 and change. Just not very pretty at all.

After seeing so many great charts lately, obviously they are few and far between this evening. But I am seeing a handful of beauties.

Coals were strong again today, and PCX is a nice chart there. The price of crude oil spiked back up today, helping a handful of Energy-related stocks. I'll keep my eye on those small oil plays such as TGC. As we've seen in the recent past, those little dynamos can take off like scalded dogs!

Biotech is also holding up well in this market, and I found a BEAUTY of an RSVP Play in that sector this evening. I'm about to name it (for paying Members) below.

But let's hope for another Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow!

Daily market Comments - July 27, 2008  9:47 PM

Wow! Not bad for "Bear Market Friday"...

As I said in the last post, I did not have very high hopes for a good day in the market Friday.

After all, since the bear market started last October, most Fridays have been downers.

But not this time.

The DJIA popped, flopped, and popped again a little at the close, in time to end in the green a shade over 21 points. But the Nasdaq did much better, ending the day up a surprisingly strong 30.42 points, or 1.33%. Not too shabby!

And, as opposed to Thursday night, I'm once again seeing lots of GREAT - not just good - charts. Also interesting is the fact I'm starting to see some "old friends" again, stocks that I've done well with in the past, looking good again. Some of my "old friends" include NIHD, NTCT, CMTL, GMCR, IAAC, VOLC, and a few others.

Good to see you again, old friends!

Daily market Comments - July 24, 2008  7:28 PM

And here's the "market meltdown"...

Well, the "Bad News Bears" took control of the market again today.

All indexes were basically decimated, with the Dow down 283 points and the Nasdaq plummeting almost 46.

Needless to say, I'm not seeing a lot of great charts tonight after this carnage. Oddly enough though, I am seeing some strong performers in the Semiconductor and Software sectors. And BIDU wasn't too shabby today either.

What caused the mini-market-meltdown? More bad news from the housing sector and weak employment data.

The odds don't favor a big rally in the market tomorrow either. Someone quoted a recent blurb from a financial publication today, stating that almost every Friday since this bear started growling last October has been weak.

But, as always, there are pockets of strength, and individual stocks set up to make tremendous moves. Here's one now (another Baffle Play for subscribers only)...

Daily market Comments - July 23, 2008  9:46 PM

The "market meltup" wilted, but still... not bad!

For awhile it appeared the market was going ballistic to the upside.

Both the DJIA and the Nasdaq went postal shortly after the open. Especially the Nas, which was up an eye-opening 2% before 11 am EST!

Those lofty levels just couldn't be sustained, however. But all major indexes ended nicely in the green.

Helping things along - especially the beaten-down Homebuilder stocks - was the news of a possible swift passing of a housing bailout act from Washington. The plan would help troubled mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

That should provide further impetus to this new market uptrend.

You know, it seems most of the news coming from the mainstream media these days is all bad. Worst June Dow since the Great Depression! Home prices plummeting! Etc. etc.

Bet you didn't read in the news that homebuilder stock MHO - which sold for $7.83 back in January - is now selling for a tidy $21.45.

I guess a near 3-bagger gain in a "bombed-out" homebuilder stock in just a few months is just not news "fit enough to print."

Which is why I'll say... once again... turn off the TV, quit reading the mainstream news media, and simply watch what's actually happening in the markets.

You can truly Trade Your Way To Wealth if you'll do that.

Well, my RSVP Play yesterday was up "only" 13% today, so I'll try to do better with this next pick. It's a rare Baffle, and I think it's about to double quickly.

Daily market Comments - July 22, 2008  10:17 PM

Get the truck warmed up!

Well, it looks like it's time once again to get the truck warmed up...

Because I think it's time to BUTT! (Back Up The Truck) and buy.

Just about all sectors of the market - across the board - took part in the late-day rally of the market today.

From airlines to auto parts, banks to biotech, casinos to computers, drugs to... well, you get the picture... just about EVERYTHING went up today.

I'm a "kid in a candy store" again. Tons of great charts tonight - not just decent ones, but "heart-skipping-a-beat" good 'uns! (Now watch the market crater tomorrow).

For now, let's bask in the glow of this glorious "Turnaround Tuesday" and enjoy it.

By the way, you know you had a great day when both PAS (PepsiAmericas) and DPZ (Domino's Pizza) were up huge!

I'm feeling so good tonight, I'm about to name a stock to play below that's been sold off an amazing 23 out of the past 25 days. But it was up almost 19% today on good volume.

Hey - yesterday's pick was up almost 63% today! I'm feeling a little "cocky"!

Daily market Comments - July 21, 2008  10:38 PM

Lots of former market leaders "rejoined the party" today, and the financial stocks still look good. Is this market starting to broaden out?

Well, the overall market took a rest today, due to a rebound in the price of crude oil from its steep slide over the past few days. That obviously helped the Energy stocks, which basically bounced across the board. Lots of great reversal signals set up in the charts of those stocks today.

But that news was tempered with the announcement from Swiss drug giant Roche Holding AG, which said it has offered to buy the 44% of biotech bellwether Genentech it doesn’t already own for $43.7 billion. That set lots of the already frisky Biotech stocks on fire, so there was continued strength seen in that sector.

Other former leaders "rejoining the party" today (besides the Energy sector stocks) were the Ag Chemicals, Steels, and Coals.

Wow! Looking at the sheer number of great chart setups tonight, I would have sworn the market was up big today!

Anyway, I previously thought the former leaders were selling off to raise cash to buy new leaders like the Financials, but now I'm not so sure.

If we continue to see buying in the already-strong stocks, and add new sectors like the Health, Medical, Biotech, Drug, and Financials, that could mean this market is broadening out... which would be very bullish.

Daily market Comments - July 17, 2008  10:51 PM

The market "basketball being held underwater" has been released, and it's time to Trade Your Way to Wealth!

I recently described the market as like "a basketball being held underwater", meaning it had so much latent energy built up, any catalyst could cause the "release" of the basketball, and a market eruption to the upside.

With the double whammy of plunging oil prices and a spate of good news hitting the market -- especially the bombed-out financial stocks -- it looks like the catalyst is here to cause the release of the basketball.

With the DJIA up an amazing 483 points in a little over 30 hours, I'd say this summer rally is underway. And going back to right before Bernanke's testimony on Tuesday, the Dow is up a fear-morphing-to-greed 600 points!

And with dozens and dozens of bank stocks trading at levels so low you'd think we're stuck back in the Great Depression, we may be staring in the face of a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create lasting wealth by scooping these mega-bargains up.

For example, just look at what BKUNA - Bank United - did in the last two days. Yesterday, up 105%, and today up another tidy 135%! Folks, there is a TON of money to be made on this market rebound.

In fact, it could be the best chance you've ever had to Trade Your Way to Wealth.

These bombed-out bank stocks could be like shooting fish in a barrel if these financial crises are indeed starting to subside. Rest assured, I'll be playing lots of those in this service.

Here's one now (for my paid subscribers only)...

Daily market Comments - July 16, 2008  11:42 PM

Is this the end of the "June Swoon"? It sure looks that way...

A day like today almost makes all of the dismal trading action in June worthwhile.

What can you say about the market action today, with the Dow up a cheery 277 points, or 2.52%, and the Nasdaq up even better - an eye-opening 69+ points, or a rare 3.12%?

Actually, I can think of many other things to say.

In fact, I had several other variations of today's headline I could have used, like the following...

"Instead of 'Turnaround Tuesday', we had 'Wonderful Wednesday' this week..."

"And the last shall be first...”

"What a difference a day makes..." etc. I think you get my drift.

Now, I'm not at all sure this is the absolute bottom of this pullback, and we still may be in a bear market.

But today sure was fun. And it sure feels like a bottom reversal to me.

Just about every sector of the market did well today, but the Financial and Airline stocks are up basically across the board. Helping the Airline stocks was the suddenly plunging price of crude oil over the past two days.

And when Wells Fargo announced a "triple whammy" of a decent earnings report (a total shock coming from a bank), a dividend INCREASE... and plans for coming out of the current "financial crisis" intact - well, that did the trick for all stocks even remotely related to the financial area. We're talking just about all bank stocks, real estate related companies (including homebuilders!), mortgage companies, brokerages (check out ETFC today), insurance companies, etc.

There now seems to be little doubt that the market is starting to broaden out in the sectors doing well. I've already mentioned several times the health, biotech and medical appliances and equipment areas, but today I'm seeing powerful charts in the trucking, retail, solar, tech and other sectors as well.

Not to mention the fact that the market tends to bottom out in July and August anyway.

All things considered, I'm very bullish at this stage. I've been saying for weeks that this market is tremendously oversold, and due for at least a major bounce. Think of the "basketball being held under water" analogy. Once you let the ball go, watch what can happen!

Daily market Comments - July 15, 2008  7:45 PM

For awhile, it looked like a huge turnaround day, but it was not to be...

Due to continuing financial woes, the market fell off a cliff on the open, and all looked bleak yet again.

But then the price of crude oil plummeted. U.S. crude futures finished the day down $6.44 to $138.74 a barrel on the Nymex. It was the biggest daily drop in more than 17 years!

That spurred the market upwards for awhile, and the major index charts all started showing huge Hammer signals, strong bottoming reversal indications. And the chart of SKF (the ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF) flashed a huge gap-up Shooting Star signal for awhile, an almost sure sign of a climax run top. But once again, the market faded by the end of the day, ending mixed. The Dow dropped almost 93 points, and the Nas managed to stay in the green a bit, up 2.84 points.

Each day I run a software scan to find the stocks making new 6-month and 12-month highs. In addition to finding great trade setups, I also see patterns emerging in the market, and new sectors taking over leadership.

After running the scan today, there's no question about it.

Health and medical related stocks are taking the lead in this down market. Almost every one of the stocks turned up by the scan are in that sector. That's not too surprising really - the health sector often gets cash infused into it when times are tough.

Daily market Comments - July 14, 2008  11:24 PM

Still lots of uncertainty in this market...

The market started off with a bang this morning, on news the Fed would indeed bail out both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae if necessary.

The euphoria lasted all of 30 minutes, if even that long.

Then it was back to "downside as usual", when traders and investors began to realize the financial sector was still in deep trouble. WaMu was one of today's high-profile bank casualties, ending the day with a 34.75% haircut.

Woo-Hoo!

The market popped and flopped at the end, but all indexes showed that color we've grown to know so well lately -- red. The Dow shed another 45.35 points, and the Nas lightened up by 26.21.

There are still some great charts to be had out there though. Will SQNM ever go down, for example? Energy, Gold, Biotech, Pollution Control and even some Telecommunication stocks sported some nice charts today as well.

And the SKF  chart (the ProShares UltraShort Financial ETF) keeps showing signs of a climax run. One of these days, it will. So be alert.

Daily market Comments - July 13, 2008  8:52 PM

More (belated) fireworks in the stock market...

Well, you can't say the market is not "making it interesting" lately.

For a while, it seemed we could be on the verge of a full-scale crash. Rumors abounded Friday. One spate of news hinted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were on the brink of bankruptcy, with no bailout from the Fed. And the sudden news of Israel setting up a base in Iraq with implications of attacking Iran did not help, spiking oil to all-time highs and creating more havoc. The Dow plunged over 200 points practically on the open and all looked grim.

But then, cooler heads started to prevail, and all the dire news analyzed a bit further. "No way on earth would the Fed let FRE and FNM go under", asserted some pundits, and the Israeli "news" turned out to be just a rumor.

And the Fed actually did come to the rescue of IndyMac in the second largest bank bailout in history. That cheered the markets a bit, since it indicated in fact the Fed is concerned about such matters and will take steps to stop financial calamity.

After a 200+ point deficit, the Dow bounced, and was actually green for a short time. But then it the market turned tail again, perhaps thinking "Well, the news is not THAT good!"

So at the end of the day - another wild one in the market - all the major indexes closed in the red. The Dow took it on the chin the worst, down a shade over 128 points, or 1.14%.

But for such a "lousy" market, there are still some great charts out there.

The Energy stocks are reversing nicely back to the upside, and so are some of the other former leaders of the market. That includes the Coals, Steels and Ag Chemicals. Medical and Biotech stocks still look "healthy" here, as do the Golds.

Daily market Comments - July 10, 2008  10:14 PM

While the market finds a bottom, it may be time to BUTT on the Energy stocks again...

Well, the market was another gut-wrenching, Dramamine-inducing roller coaster ride today, but we ended up OK.

All major indexes closed the day green, with the DJIA up over 81 points and the Nasdaq just shy of 23. It looked for awhile that the market was performing another swan dive around 1:30 EST, but it bounced very briskly in the last hour of trading - including an additional little pop right at the end.

And you could have basically thrown a dart at any Energy-related stock today and ended with - in some cases - a gain in one day you'd be proud to have at the end of the year! I'm talking about CLR - Continental Resources - there, which powered to a new all-time high today, up 20.52% on humongous volume.

Every Energy company chart I saw on my scans this evening looks like a buy or rebuy. Lots of gorgeous candlestick reversal patterns are evident, in some cases right off the 50emas on great volume. Perfect times to BUTT (Back Up The Truck) and buy if you missed the huge initial run-ups on some of these beauties.

And I'm still seeing lots of nice charts in the Medical Appliances & Equipment areas. So this market may actually be broadening out, adding more sectors to the bullish side while the Financial stocks still struggle.

Guess all that money coming out of FRE and FNM has to go somewhere!

Well, the market bounce lasted all of... one day. Yet even with the market massacre today, you still might be fine if you're out of financial stocks...

Will Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae go to zero?

Everyone sure seems to think so, since these two stocks were decimated again, to the tune of (23.77%) for FRE and (13.11%) for FNM.

The continuing cremation of all stocks financial took the Dow down an amazing 236.77 points (after skyrocketing over 152 points yesterday), and the Nasdaq also took it on the chin, down 59.55 points, withering after its super-strong 51.12 point romp yesterday.

Needless to say, an utterly nasty reversal day.

Even the market "experts" are admitting this is the most schizoid trading they've seen in a long time, if ever in their careers.

However, as long as you were not trying to play the false financial stock bounce fiasco, you were probably spared most of the carnage today. In fact, nice bounces held up for the most part in the former leaders of the market, including the Coals, Steel & Iron, Energy and Ag Chemical stocks.

I'm still liking all stocks in the Healthcare area. Nice charts still abound in that sector.

Daily market Comments - July 08, 2008  9:51 PM

Wow! What a difference a day makes. But I've been telling you to watch for a possible strong bottoming reversal for some time now...

...and I think we got it today.

The DJIA rocketed 152.25 points, or 1.36%, but the Nasdaq was the Star of the Day today with its impressive 51.12 point romp, or 2.28%. A nice Turnaround Tuesday!

Now we'll have to see if this was indeed the bottom, but it sure feels like it. I've not seen this many great charts in quite some time.

And we may be seeing new leadership emerging in the market. With the price of crude oil suddenly plummeting, the Energy and Commodity stocks are taking a rest, and I'm seeing some beautiful charts in the Healthcare, Pharmaceutical, Biotech and Medical Equipment sectors.

One tactic we might try is to search for low-priced stocks in those sectors - especially for the chart patterns that we like so well. We saw some amazing short-term gains in the small oils recently, and we just might see that same kind of thing happening in the small-cap medical equipment and biotech stocks.

For examples, watch MELA, STAA, ULGX and NURO.

Also, the Financial stocks exploded in the last half hour today. Those have been absolutely decimated lately, and could be due for huge bounces. Both MA and V look good here, as well as dozens of small banks and REITs. Even a few homebuilders look good here.

Anyway, we could be seeing our nice post-holiday rally developing here after all.

Daily market Comments - July 07, 2008  11:20 PM

Thrills and chills! The market took us for a summer roller coaster ride today...

Well, the market started out with a bang on the open this morning, and it actually looked for awhile like we were going to get our post 4th of July rally going.

We did have fireworks, but not the kind I had in mind.

We did have that nice "Roman Candle" liftoff to start us off, but - just like the fireworks themselves - the market came crashing back to earth. And then a nice "instant replay" to end the day.

But at the close, the markets ended red, yet again. The Dow tumbled 56.58 points and the Nas closed out about where it started. Much ado about nothing it seems.

Having said that, there are a handful of decent charts this evening. Some are in the Tech area, and others are in the Medical Equipment sector. Pawn Shop operators were strong today too.

Daily market Comments - July 06, 2008  7:05 PM

Ah, the "Summer Doldrums"! Makes for a challenging stock market...

Well, here we are, already almost halfway through the summer months, and right "smack-dab in the middle" of the "Summer Doldrums."

The market can be extremely challenging in the summer. What with lots of the Big Boy traders vacationing at The Hamptons, etc. - sometimes there are not a lot of buyers in the market to counteract the sellers when they decide to dump stocks wholesale.

We saw a good case of that last week, when stocks that had formerly led the market were "taken to the woodshed" and punished unmercifully.

This week should be interesting, since historically the market has usually been pretty decent right after the 4th of July holiday. Heaven knows we're way overdue for at least a technical bounce.

And that bounce could be a good one! Just take a glance at the DJIA's chart. That index has to escalate around 1,000 points just to get back to its 50-day moving average!

Summer Doldrums indeed. But let's see if we can get some belated 4th of July fireworks in the market this week.

Daily market Comments - July 03, 2008  12:01 AM

Well, so much for a market bottom. In fact, the market "stunk up the room" today...

So this is what a full-blown bear market looks like. Simple destruction of great charts, with weeks of uptrend wiped out in a few hours of trading.

The charts I'm talking about are the former leaders of this market - the seemingly invincible Commodity, Coal, Ag Chemicals and even some Energy stocks (even though the price of crude oil shot to an all-time high today -- go figure). Some of these stocks were just taken out and shot today.

But when everybody heads for the exits at the same time, this is what happens... "good" stocks get thrown out with the "bad", and it's just all downhill after that.

Could today just be a one-day "rinse"? Or even the Final Capitulation of this latest market downdraft? Perhaps, but that's what I thought yesterday.

Today, I'm not so sure.

And this could simply end up being rotation out of the former market leaders and into new sectors. For example, I'm starting to see some very interesting charts in the Drug and Biotech areas. I'm going to name one of those stocks for members as an RSVP.

Daily market Comments - July 01, 2008  10:03 PM

Today sure looks like a bottom for the market - time for an Independence Day rally?

The market was all over the place today. But at the end of the day, most of the major indexes flashed that beautiful shade of green we like so well. And heavy volume came in to cause some pretty impressive candlestick reversal signals on the index charts.

Could this be at least a short-term bottom? It sure "feels" that way with today's action, and the market usually does the "patriotic thing" and rallies around the flag around Independence Day - AKA the 4th of July here in the good ole' USA.

Certain Biotech stocks took "center stage" today, including CELG - with a solid base breakout to highs not seen since late last year. MYGN's mega-BEaST (Bullish Engulfing on Steroids) pattern was also quite impressive today.

But I'm going to the battered Financial sector for a fantastic RSVP setup tonight. These stocks have just been slaughtered, they look tremendously oversold, and any good news at all could send some of them skyward. I think I've found one in that category. I'll name it below.