The worst quarter for the stock market since 2002! Oh well, at least it's over...

Well, now that we got the first quarter of 2008 out of the way, the worst quarter since the first half of 2002, let's hope for bigger and better things for the stock market.

And I have high hopes exactly that will happen. I got an interesting email from another investing service this morning that stated something like the following...

Assuming we're in a recession, they usually last about 10 months on the average. The stock market peaked last October, and usually starts to pick up six months before the end of a recession. So, assuming the current recession started in January, that would mean it might be over as soon as this October. Now go back six months from October and you should be at a stock market bottom.

And that would be, well - right about NOW!

So I remain cautiously optimistic, waiting for that market bottom. And I still think we've already seen it.

Oh well, it was nice while it lasted...

It seems we are back in a stock market downtrend.

We had a nice little rally going for awhile, but both the DJIA and the Nas bumped their respective heads on their respective 50-day exponential moving averages, and that was the end of the rally. Both indexes are now back below their respective 10ema's as well.

We may simply be in a trading range though. Let's see if 11,750 on the downside holds for the Dow, and 2,160 on the Nas. Those are the areas of recent support for each index.

I still think the market is trying to bottom out here, but we'll have to wait for the market itself to tell us that, like we always do.

Hope you have a great weekend!

OK, so maybe I'm a little less bullish today...

No matter how you feel about it personally, the market is never wrong.

It seems lately that it will do just about anything to confuse you. Up huge one day - hey - the bulls are back! Only to crater the next day. And the next day up big again.

Truth be told, this is the trickiest market in years, and if you're having trouble trying to "figure things out", don't worry about it - lots of the pros are feeling the same way. Basically, all you can do is watch the market's action each and every day, taking each day as it comes, and playing what the market gives you that day.

My advice? Unless you can watch the market action like a hawk, stay mostly in cash until things "sort themselves out."

For an off day in the market, I sure am seeing a lot of great charts...

I continue to remain in a bullish mood.

It seems, even with bad news in the market, and with the major averages in the red today, I'm still seeing lots of stocks making good moves. Granted, they are in some of the former "hot" areas, like coal, solars, ag chemicals, metals, etc. - but still - lots of great short-term (that may turn into longer-term plays) are available - much more than just a few short days ago.

Therefore, I remain bullish. That's my story (for now), and I'm sticking to it (for now).

I think lots of money is going to be made off this bottom...

It's really starting to be fun again in this market.

Although the market was mixed today, with the DJIA the only major index ending in the red, it seemed a lot stronger. Dozens of stocks made big moves today (some on gorgeous breakouts), and it was indeed fun to watch (and to participate in some of the big movers, like one of my favorite stocks in the market right now - TITN).

This looks, feels and smells like our usual Spring Rally. Let's play it for all its worth. Heaven knows we've been patient for many weeks now.

This is the most bullish I've felt in awhile...

This is really starting to feel like a market bottom.

We've had the rocket day off the bottom, and now we've had several confirmation days. We're seeing retail and real estate stocks taking off. We're starting to see and hear more good news than bad, including a much higher bid for battered Bear Stearns stock, which was up a tidy 88.76% today, after being up even more intraday.

This market wants to go up after giving us the Chinese Water Torture treatment on the downside. While we may not be totally out of the woods yet, this looks like at least a strong playable rally here, and we are in what has historically been a good part of the year to be fully invested in stocks.

Oh well, it was nice while it lasted...

It seems in this market, euphoria is short-lived.

After yesterday's major market meltup, it was back to the dungeon today, with the Dow down 293 points and the Nas down over 58 points. Almost a perfect mirror image of yesterday's action.

To which, I'll repeat a phrase I've now used in three of these posts in a row...

"To say this market is the most schizoid I've ever seen could be the understatement of the year."

I still think we're trying to etch out a bottom here, but bottom line - who knows? And in the end, the market itself will have to tell us that.

Is this just the beginning - or the end?

If you read my post yesterday, you'll likely recall the following two paragraphs:

"To say this market is the most schizoid I've ever seen could be the understatement of the year. And this week should be very, very interesting, with the Fed almost certain to lower interest rates another 3/4 of a point (at least) tomorrow.

Other major brokerage houses like Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs release earnings this week. If they're "fair to middling" (as we say here in Texas), then we could see another market pop of 300-400 points. But if they're horrible, Katy bar the door (as we also say here in Texas) on the downside."

Well, I was a little off on the market pop, but pretty darn close on everything else.

The Fed did cut the Fed funds rate 75 basis points. Lehman and Goldman did report "fair to middling" earnings. And the Dow soared a jaw-dropping 420.41 points - its best one-day gain in five years!

Well, so I was off 20 points on the upside potential. Gimme a break.

Today also could mark a dandy of a follow-through day from last Tuesday. And the Dow's chart is showing an ARM (Awesome Rising Method)! If this is not bottoming action, I don't know what is!

Is this just the beginning - or the end?

With the remarkable announcement over the weekend that the "rock-solid", 85-year-old company Bear Stearns would be sold off for a couple of bucks to J.P. Morgan, along with the Fed's emergency action of lowering interest rates a quarter of a point just two days ahead of their regular meeting, I was expecting the worse on today's market open. Or at least a LOT of volatility!

We got both on the open.

The Dow was down triple digits immediately. But soon a strange thing started to happen - the markets began to bounce back strongly to the upside.

It was then roller-coaster action the rest of the day, with the market finally ending up - not surprisingly - mixed. The DJIA ended up in the green, with a 21.16 point close. The Nas ended up in the red, with a 35.48 point loss.

To say this market is the most schizoid I've ever seen could be the understatement of the year. And this week should be very, very interesting, with the Fed almost certain to lower interest rates another 3/4 of a point (at least) tomorrow.

Other major brokerage houses like Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs release earnings this week. If they're "fair to middling" (as we say here in Texas), then we could see another market pop of 300-400 points. But if they're horrible, Katy bar the door (as we also say here in Texas) on the downside.

With all the terrible news hitting the market, I'm actually thanking my lucky stars that it hasn't crashed. But with Greenspan saying this is the "worst financial crisis since World War II" (why can't that guy just retire, shut his mouth, and fade into the sunset?), that dire event is still in the offing.

Just when things were looking pretty good again, Bear Stearns drops a bombshell...

Friday began as a fairly quiet day for the stock market. But that was not to last.

Bear Stearns - the venerable, 85 year-old investment banking and brokerage firm - dealt a body slam to the market with the announcement it was basically near bankruptcy. The company went on life support Friday, forced to accept an extraordinary bailout package after being deserted by the clients and counterparties at the heart of the Wall Street firm's business.

Triggering a sell-off throughout the financial sector, Bear shares slumped 47% to $30, their biggest one-day drop in at least two decades.

Company executives claimed the rescue consists of getting short-term financing from the Fed, through J.P. Morgan, after its liquidity "deteriorated significantly" during the past 24 hours.

That news obviously sent the market into a tailspin, with the DJIA down well over 200 points during the day. But the market did manage a small comeback by the day's end, with the DJIA down a hair less than 195 points. The Nasdaq took a bigger hit percentage-wise, down over 51 points.

So much for Standard & Poor's earlier statement in the week, when they suggested problems related to the huge subprime mortgage fiasco were coming to an end. That's sounding pretty Pollyanna-ish right now.

And next week should be interesting. The Fed will obviously be lowering interest rates at least 75 basis points to try to avoid a complete market meltdown, and there are some strong rumors on the street right now of a possible 100 basis point reduction, which would be a full percentage point drop.

That action will most probably skewer the U.S. Dollar even further, and spike the price of gold - and perhaps oil as well. However, it should spike the stock market up as well.

We'll see. Hold on for what could be an exciting ride!

Wow! What a powerful reversal in the market today...

It looked like utter catastrophe for the market earlier in the day.

The DJIA cratered 235 points at the low of the day on lots of negative news, including $1,000 an ounce gold, $111 a barrel oil, and news that a major hedge fund was about to collapse due to wrong bets on the subprime mortgage market.

But then - GREAT potential news hit the market.

Standard & Poor's suggested banks might be finished with the bulk of write-downs linked to bad home loans. That news caused an incredible reversal in the market, with the DJIA ending up over 35 points for the day, and the Nasdaq up over almost 20 points.

This is surely starting to look like a market bottom to me. While I'm not yet quite ready to BUTT - Back Up The Truck and buy - with a solid follow-through day in the next week or so, I might be persuaded to.

Not quite a "follow-through" day, but not bad...

For a while, it looked like today was going to be a strong continuation of yesterday's huge reversal.

The Dow was up triple digits at one point, but when news of $110 a barrel oil hit the stock market, those gains just couldn't be held.

Still, overall today's market action looks like what I call a "resting day" - where the highs of the day could not be held, but with the market not cratering either after the huge gain from yesterday.

Bottom line, the jury's still out. And anyway, you want to see a follow-through day occurring at least four days after the initial blastoff day, and up to the eleventh day, according to market action in the past that preceded new bull markets off a pullback bottom.

See! I told you so...

OK, from now on, when I make a statement like "This market sucks" it may be time to back up the truck and buy.

And I've told you over and over again in the past that when you're the most bearish, and feeling the most disheartened and downtrodden, that may actually be the time to buy stocks!

Yes, I've stated many times in the past that - when you think the market is about to tank - that things just can't get any worse - that nothing you're doing in the market is working - then it may be time for a market bottom, and the time to start thinking quite contrarily and to force yourself to become more bullish - at least for the short term.

With the DJIA up an incredible 416.66 points today (the biggest one-day jump in five years) and the Nas up an equally amazing 86.42 points, you begin to realize how insanely oversold this market was. Of course, $200 billion from the Fed always helps things, and puts investors in a "better mood."

Bottom line, we got our Turnaround Tuesday today - which may be the understatement of the year. Now let's see if we have a textbook "W" double bottom in the major index charts, and can get a nice rally going here. Obviously, today was Day 1 of the rally. Now we wait for the follow-through day, which theoretically should come as the fourth day - and as far as the eleventh day - into the new rally.

I'll make this short and sweet...

This market sucks.

Let's hope for Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow - I can't stand much more of this Chinese water torture. Otherwise keep your watch list up to date with all the ProShares UltraShort ETFs. They have some of the best-looking charts in this market right now.

The market looks absolutely terrible! Is it time to get bullish?

Just when you thought the news couldn't get any worse, it does.

Friday's jobs report dealt the market another stiff blow. The U.S. economy lost 63,000 jobs in February, the largest drop since March 2003 and marking the second drop in a row in monthly employment. The news certainly lends credence to the recession scenario, and the markets responded accordingly.

The DJIA ended down 146.7 points, or 1.22%, while the Nas was not nearly as bad - down a mere 8.01 points, or 0.36%. Both markets ended off their intraday lows, however.

With the news so bad, we're almost to the point of asking ourselves, "How could things get even worse?" Of course, they can - but I've found when I'm feeling the most pessimistic and downhearted - that's oftentimes the exact moment the market rebounds for at least a few days.

But we need to see the market hold here, because those January lows have now been taken out, and that's not good news at all.

Beautiful base breakouts - the kind that work like gangbusters in bull markets - are getting killed in this miserable market. So I've been looking more for "bottom-fishing" kinds of plays lately for short-term swing plays. I found a beautiful "bottom-fisher' play Friday - a small stock up over 11% on huge volume, with a gorgeous Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. It should be good for a nice short-term gain, even in this market. I'm about to name that stock for my Premium Members.

About as bad as it gets, save for a market crash...

I remarked to a fellow chat room participant that today's market action was like "Chinese water torture." That's just what it felt like.

The market was weak on the open and it was all downhill from there. The DJIA ended down 216.4 points, or 1.75%, and the Nas did even worse percentage-wise, down 52.31 points, or 2.3%. Just pug ugly. And the market cratered during the last hour, which is even more bearish. Those ProShares UltraShort ETFs are looking real good here.

Having said those pessimistic words, I'm very excited about tonight's ARM Play. It's a Gold Mining stock, breaking out strongly to a new all-time high on huge volume, and a prettier cup and handle base breakout I've not seen in a long time. So all was not gloom and doom today.

The market is still trying to find a bottom...

It sure looked like it was going to be a great day in the market today.

It didn't turn out that bad, with the DJIA ending up over 41 points and the Nasdaq up over 12.5. But it could have been a lot better.

The market opened strongly, and seemed to be hoping for some kind of news related to a bailout of ailing bond-insurer Ambac (NYSE: ABK). That news did not materialize, and could have tanked the market. But that didn't happen. It did slump back into the red on the "non-news", but recovered nicely by the end of the day.

The index charts still show markets trying to carve out a bottom. The lower support for the Dow now seems to be in the 12,000 area, and for the Nas around 2,230.

I'm seeing lots of nice reversal charts tonight, like some MONSTARs, and even some strong breakouts. That's good news, since lately I've seen nothing much to get excited about.

I'm very excited about tonight's ARM Play, though. It's a tiny alternative energy play whose business partner just landed a huge contract in the solar area. The stock exploded over 18% today on over 6 million shares, and I think this could be the kickoff of a massive run for this (for now) penny stock.

Well, we got our Turnaround Tuesday, kind of...

Once again, the market started out extremely weak.

In fact, the DJIA was down over 200 points intraday. But fortunately, we had our "market meltup" today, and the Dow closed down "only" 45 and change, while the Nas actually ended in the green, but just barely. Still, green is green.

Overall, however, I'm seeing very few decent charts tonight. Some small oil and gas stocks and a handful of homebuilders are about it.

But once again, I'm seeing major Hammer signals on the main indexes. So I still think we are carving out a bottom here, in fact - a triple bottom - in the DJIA and Nas.

OK, we are all set up for Turnaround Tuesday...

Today started out like most days recently in the market, weakly.

But then the market came back to even. But then it went down again. But then it came back to even. But then it came back down again. But then it came back to just about even. At least the DJIA did that today. Can you say "see-saw"?

At the end of the day, I'm seeing Hammer signals on the major indexes. So we may have seen another short-term bottom today in this market that now seems to be caught in a trading range. Let's hope for Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow.

Wow! Just a "pug-ugly" day in the market Friday...

I slept in on Friday a bit, having "burned the midnight oil" the night before on some writing I'm doing.

I should have just stayed in bed.

The market Friday - as expressed by numerous members of the two chat clubs I'm in - "sucked." That's about the most polite expression I could come up with myself.

The DJIA was pounded almost 316 points, and the Nasdaq was pummeled for a fraction over 60. Both drawdowns were over 2.5%. A tiny late-day rally saved both indexes from closing at the exact bottom of the day.

The reasons? Nothing new, really. Just more gloomy forecasts for the economy, the dollar tanking once again, and some rotten corporate earnings reports. Not exactly the type of news that give traders and investors "warm and fuzzies" about the stock market.

But, as always, there are a pocket of stocks making big moves to the upside even in the backdrop of a dismal market. Take JRJC for instance - up almost 25% for the day. Or MNTA - up a tidy 28.61% on a nice RSVP (Rare Spike on Volume and Price) setup.

But the stock I'm about to name for my Premium Members is a different kind of setup. This former high-flyer has taken a nose-dive recently, but on Friday the chart shows one of the prettiest Morning Star setups I've seen in quite a while.