Daily market Comments - February 28, 2008  11:21 PM

The market is still dominated by natural resource stocks...

Once a day, I run a scan that looks for stocks making a new 6 or 12-month high.

The scan gives me an idea of what sector or industry group is dominating the market at any given time. What did the scan tell me today?

That natural resource stocks - the Oil & Gas, Gold, Silver, Steel & Iron, and Coal sectors - are leading this market - in spades.

In fact, I only saw a couple of stocks outside of those sectors.

So for the time being, I'll try to find the "best of the best" stocks within those sectors to point out in all my services.

I found a fantastic potential in the Steel & Iron sector, and I'm about to let my Premium Members know the name of the stock. It's virtually unknown, undiscovered, and just released bang-up earnings and sales numbers. And, oh yeah, its P/E ratio is only 8.38. And by the way, it's a China-based company. The chart setup shows a stock about to explode to the upside.

Daily market Comments - February 16, 2008  8:31 PM

A positive week overall, as the market tries to bottom...

All in all, it was a pretty good week for the stock market.

The DJIA and the S&P 500 both gained 1.4% for the week, while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.7% gain. The Nasdaq especially offered a ray of hope this week, with a 2.3% pop Wednesday that served as a follow-through day for the index as it attempts to move off the recent bottom.

The very next day, however, spoiled our hopes - at least for now - with a high-volume reversal back to the downside. Friday's action was overall positive though. The market was down for the day, but could have been much worse with all the soft economic news hitting it lately.

As far as the major index charts are concerned, I'm a little optimistic there too. I'm seeing gap down Doji's in both the Dow and the Nas, which oftentimes means the end of the pullback. So next week could be interesting.

Daily market Comments - February 14, 2008  7:56 PM

Well, the bears returned to Wall Street today...

In this paraniod-schizophrenic market we're in, the paranoid took back control today.

Yesterday's nice gains were obliterated on both the DJIA and the Nasdaq. The Dow was down just over 175 points while the Nas was down 41 and change.

I couldn't find a good reason for the mini-meltdown. Sure, Bernanke spoke, but his words to me seemed more bullish than bearish, since he reaffirmed the Fed will act (to lower interest rates again and again) in order to prop up the U.S. economy and ward off a recession.

The market paid no heed, however, and decided to head south.

There is one stock that's been on my radar screen for quite some time now, due to its relentless uptrend. Its chart was gorgeous today in a horrid market otherwise, with a nice move over 5%. I named it as my "Chart of the Day" for my TYWTW Mastermind Group today. I'm about to name that stock below for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Members.

Daily market Comments - February 13, 2008  7:01 PM

The bulls finally romped all day in Wall Street today...

It was a great day on Wall Street today!

Just like yesterday, the market gapped up on the open. But UNLIKE yesterday, the market kept going all day long, closing near the highs of the day.

The DJIA was up a nifty 178.83 points, or 1.45%. But the tech-laden Nasdaq was up even better percentage-wise at 53.89 points, or 2.32%. Not too shabby, and this marks the third straight day the major indexes have headed north. Investors played off a surprising rebound in January retail sales (after an horrible December) as a reason to buy equities today.

Also helping things along was First Solar (FSLR) which skyrocketed over 30% after totally destroying earnings and sales estimates. This ignited the whole Solar sector, which was a market darling most of last year, but has succumbed to recent massive profit-taking in the past few weeks.

Biotech is also warming up again, with huge one-day gains taking place almost every day in the market now. I'm about to name one of those ultra-strong small biotechs for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Members. This stock recently doubled in 13 days, and it's heading north again after just a short pullback.

Daily market Comments - February 12, 2008  11:54 PM

Another (fairly) bullish day on Wall Street...

It looked like another blowout bullish day on Wall Street today - for awhile.

The Dow was up over 200 points at one point during the day, and the Nasdaq was up around 16. But neither index could hold their respective highs of the day. The DJIA did the best today, with a still quite respectful 133.4 points, with the Nas down just a tad.

The market was initially buoyed a little today with the news that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway came off the sidelines in the mortgage-market crisis, unveiling a plan to reinsure $800 billion of municipal bonds currently guaranteed by three of the world's largest bond insurers.

Overall, I was disappointed with the chart action of most stocks today. What looked like tremendous buy setups earlier in the day fizzled by the day's end, even producing potential sell signals with Shooting Stars, gap up Doji's, etc. in some cases. So - while I still think we are carving out a market bottom here - we are still in a tricky market, and caution is advised.

Daily market Comments - February 11, 2008  6:27 PM

It's always fun when you start seeing great charts again...

I'm feeling more and more bullish, and more confident that we've seen the market bottom for this pullback.

What's making me feel so bullish these days? Well, for one thing - I'm simply seeing lots of great charts - charts I didn't see just a few short weeks ago.

I'm seeing trending charts, rather than up one day, down the next type of charts. I'm seeing beautiful base breakouts, in some cases to new all-time highs! Finally, I'm starting to see some of the superstar sectors of the recent past - like the Solars, Steels and the Shippers, coming back to life.

So - once again - I'm buying stocks whose charts are simply irresistible.

Speaking of which, my ARM Play tonight is a "blast from the past", and a stock that's blasting off once again. The stock recently popped 26% on huge volume, and was up almost 14% today. Although it may never be a $1,300 stock like it was at its top in 2000, I think it could have a really good run here. I'm going to name that stock for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Members below.

Daily market Comments - February 09, 2008  8:15 PM

It's starting to look like the January lows may hold...

The markets are still looking like a bottom forming to me.

The Dow's chart shows three days of bottoming action, indicated by an Inverted Hammer, a Spinning Top and a Hammer candlestick signals. The Nasdaq also seems to be bottoming out with a nice Piercing Pattern and a Spinning Top. Both charts show stochastics at rock bottom oversold levels and about to angle back up.

In short, I would be looking for stocks with nice charts to buy right here for at least a market bounce. And based on my weekend analysis so far, I'm finding some really good ones. Especially in the rebounding Energy and Gold areas. And the "red-hot" Coal area still has some chart beauties. But I have quite a few others on my list outside of those industries.

I'm going to name one of those other companies for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Members below. It's in the (also) red-hot Alternative Energy area, and no, it's not a Solar play! The stock is a recent IPO, and the chart setup is the same as other IPO's that have gone bonkers in the past.

Daily market Comments - February 07, 2008  7:44 PM

The markets are now at a crossroads...

The markets are in the process of testing their lows made in January.

The action was positive overall today, with a nice little rebound after several days of extremely negative action. And the January lows did hold for both the DJIA and the Nasdaq. In fact, we could be looking at a nice "W" double bottom for the major indexes.

And Congress did manage to pass a $152 billion economic stimulus package designed to provide a timely, targeted and temporary boost to the flagging U.S. economy.

The market did not exactly go crazy to the upside on that announcement, but let's give it a day or two to judge the effects.

Daily market Comments - February 06, 2008  6:11 PM

The bulls tried, but the bears maintained control of the market today...

For a while, the market was looking quite perky today. But that all ended around 11:30 am EST.

At first it looked like we were going to have a rebound day after the hideous drubbing of the day before, with the DJIA hitting an intraday high of 12,390.15 and the Nasdaq 2338.27. But the markets turned on a dime and headed lower the rest of the day, with both major indexes solidly in the red.

The reason for the market swan dive today? A Fed official had to open his big mouth.

"An overly aggressive rate-easing campaign by the Federal Reserve would only fuel higher inflation down the road", Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Wednesday.

Yeah, that's what we need to be worried about right now - inflation "down the road." Sheesh.

Daily market Comments - February 05, 2008  8:48 PM

The market was horrible today, unless you bought this stock on the open...

Well, so much for "deja vu" in the stock market.

The bear came back with a vengeance today as the DJIA collapsed over 370 points and the Nasdaq over 73. Both indexes gapped down on the open, and it was all downhill from there. It was the biggest one-day fall for stocks in eleven months.

Today's bad news? The report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), that stated the non-manufacturing index for January was just 44.6. This is one of the strongest signals yet that the economy is already in a recession. A number above 50 represents growth in the sector while below 50 signals contraction. This was the first fall in the ISM report in nearly five years. Not good news, and the market responded big time.

So now it looks like we at least test January lows. I'm seeing a few signs that the bottom could be in place, but wiping out the extreme low in January also wipes out that scenario in my mind.

And it's always not a good sign when the best charts in the market are those of the ProShares UltraShort ETF's. Well, at least they give us something to play while the market searches for a bottom.

On the other hand, if you bought IDMI - IDM Pharma Inc. - on the open today, you would be a happy camper. It's been popping for several days now, and I brought the stock to the attention of my TYWTW Mastermind Chat Room Members. It was up an amazing 44.3% yesterday. But that move turned out to be chump change.

The stock was up a cool 234.21% today on huge volume.

The reason for the humongous move seemed to be based on the recent success of Phase III testing for its cancer-treating drug, reported by the Children's Oncology Group.

From Knobias: "The COG's findings were based on long-term follow up of 662 patients with newly diagnosed non-metastatic osteosarcoma treated in the Phase 3 trial and demonstrated that the addition of L-MTP-PE to chemotherapy following surgery resulted in statistically superior Overall Survival (OS) the first stated aim of the study.

In the past two decades, there have been no treatment advances for patients with osteosarcoma, a rare and often fatal bone tumor that typically affects children and young adults."

That 234.21% move could be just the beginning for this tiny company.

Daily market Comments - February 04, 2008  7:15 PM

It was a touch of "deja vu" in the air today, except for one thing...

I felt a fine rush of "deja vu" in the stock market today.

By that I mean some of the old "stand-bys" of the stock market exploded today. The Solars and China stocks for the most part. It brought back fond memories of when these stocks took off and ran like crazy.

Let's take a look at some of the China stocks for examples.

When China-based companies start to pop, I always look at the handful of stocks in that area I call the "Chinese Firecrackers." The top two in that category are CTDC and CHNR. Sure enough, they had fun today, with CTDC up almost 12% and CHNR popping over 22%. Not too shabby.

But there were others that did even better.

Take a look at CPSL - up an amazing 39.39%, and RCH - up a respectable 23.95%. Guess I'll have to add those to the Firecrackers.

Just about all the Solars had great days today. YGE looks like a solid bottom with a nice 13.38% gain today off a Hammer signal. CSIQ's chart is a beauty. FSLR, STP and JASO are no slouches either. The Solars had tremendous runs before crashing back down to earth in the recent market weakness. Looks like they may be "warming" up again.

The only thing missing in today's "deja vu" experience? The market itself. It tanked due to "profit-taking" from the nice recent run. But there sure are a lot of nice charts out there for such a weak market day. Guess you just have to know where to look.

I'm going to the Tech area to name my ARM Play this evening for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Members. This stock is being bought like crazy over the past ten days, up 40% in that time frame and blasting out to a new 7-year high today in a lousy market otherwise. This one looks like a home run.

Daily market Comments - February 03, 2008  7:04 AM

Good riddance to one of the worst Januarys in stock market history...

Well, there's one good thing you can say about January now, at least as far as the stock market is concerned.

And that is - it's over.|

The broad market indexes ended January with one of their worst monthly performances ever. The NYSE composite cratered 6.3%, the S&P 500 pooped 6.1% and the DJIA was down 4.9%. But topping all of these by far was the Nasdaq, which crumbled an incredible 9.9%.

So, now that we have "mini-meltdown January" out of the way, can we get back to more bullish activity? Well, signs are actually very good in that area.

For example, Microsoft (MSFT) shocked the world Friday with the announcement of a hostile $45 billion takeover bid for Yahoo (YHOO). The move would be to go against its arch rival in the search biz - Google (GOOG). Takeover announcements - especially on that scale - usually help to create more bullishness in the markets.

And as I stated in yesterday's post, there are some areas of the market that are absolutely smoking right now. And these are in the most unexpected areas imaginable - like the bombed-out real estate and financial sectors. Believe it or not, there are scads of stocks in those sectors that have doubled and tripled lately - some just in the last few days of trading!

And these are not some rank amateur speculators bidding these beaten-down stocks back up. Warren Buffett himself, along with several other well-known value players, are now doing lots of "nibbling" in the financial area. When investors of that caliber come knocking, it's time we follow their lead and scoop up our own bargains as well.

I'm about to name a stock in the battered financial area that has literally caught fire lately, more than doubling in just the last seven trading days. I think its move is still in the beginning stages.