Daily market Comments - January 31, 2008  7:35 PM

The market is bouncing! Here are some of the best ways to play it...

What a difference a day makes!

After cratering on the open, the market did a quick about-face and never looked back. The DJIA - once down over 129 points, ended UP over 207 points, with the Nasdaq up almost 41 points.

That capitulation sell-off in mid-January is starting to look like the bottom of this down-cycle. While we're not out of the woods yet, I'm feeling a little more "Uberish" these days. (Explanation: I've become known as the "Uber-Bull" in a stock chat room I frequent).

Indeed, there are some incredible "stealth" bull markets appearing out of nowhere in just the past few days. A stock in one of these sectors was almost a 3-bagger (300% gainer) in January alone! I'm seeing many doubles in related sectors as well. That's one good thing about a sudden, sharp downdraft in the market - some of these things can bounce back just as strong!

I'm about to name a stock in one of these "stealth" bull markets for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Service Members. This small-cap stock was up over 47% today on humongous volume, and could the initial salvo of a huge, sustained move.

Daily market Comments - January 30, 2008  7:03 PM

Well, the market got what it wanted today, or did it?

As expected, the Fed cut the Fed funds interest rate today, a 50 basis point cut.

The market initially took off like a scalded dog after the announcement, with the DJIA hitting an intraday high of 12,681 and change, with the Nasdaq touching 2,396. Both indexes gave it all back and then some by the end of the day, however.

This kind of action is actually not that unusual after a Fed decision. It usually takes another day or two for the market to make up its mind what direction it wants to take.

For a weak market though, there were lots of explosive moves today in individual stocks, mostly from vastly oversold conditions.

The beleaguered Shippers got a boost today on news from Bloomberg that the Baltic Dry Index surged 5.1%, the largest gain in 2 years. Also helping that sector was the news that Excel Maritime (EXM) is buying out QMAR - Quintana Maritime. So we could see continued upside action in that sector.

The bombed-out Semiconductor sector got a boost from RMBS - Rambus Inc. That stock was up almost 18% today on humongous volume. The news there is that the company might collect royalties of as much as $10 billion, six times its market value, by winning a fight with Hynix Semiconductor Inc. Those are some sweet royalties!

I've found a rare Baffle Play today, and I'm about to name it for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Service Members. This small-cap stock was up almost 30% today on great volume out of a combination Fry Pan Bottom and Baffle setup. This chart setup has been working well in the weak market lately.

Daily market Comments - January 28, 2008  11:23 PM

The rally continues, and you'll never guess what stock sector had some of the best looking charts today...

Now that the market knows I'm back in town and watching it, she seems to be behaving much better.

LOL - I wish I really did have that much control of the market. Or maybe not. Anyway, the market looked like a young bull in the making today, even melting to the upside a bit near the close, albeit volume could have been a lot stronger.

But - we better take what we can get.

And I'm seeing lots of good-looking charts tonight whereas the past few days they've been rarer than hen's teeth.

The biggest surprise is that some of the strongest looking charts are in perhaps one of the most unlikely sectors of the market - the Homebuilders.

In fact, three of the charts made it to my ARM Play candidate list this evening - those of BZH, HOV and PHM. The Homebuilders were the "market darlings" back in the good ole days of the Real Estate Boom.

Are they ready for an instant replay? Only time will tell, but they sure are displaying some convincing bottoming action right now. Keep an eye on them - they can explode for months when they are ready.

Another sector to watch is the bombed-out Retailing sector. I'm seeing strong bottoming action there as well. Check out what BKE has done lately for an example. It hit an all-time high today! AEO and URBN are looking good too.

But I've found an interesting setup on a small pharmaceutical company that was up huge on great volume last Thursday. It more than doubled in price that day, formed a Holy Grail on Friday, and was up over 12% today to form the ARM. I think it may continue to explode if the market remains firm. I'm about to name the company to my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Service Members.

Daily market Comments - January 27, 2008  2:06 PM

Well, it looks like I picked a bad time to go on vacation...

The market seemed to be looking a tad better right before I took off a week to head down to Panama and the beautiful and restful island of Contadora.

That was not to be.

The market suffered a mini-meltdown, and was perhaps saved - once again - by "Gentle" Ben Bernanke - the Fed head. Ben came in a shocked everyone by slashing the Fed funds rate by a full 75 basis points - the first such action since 9/11, and a rare inter-meeting move.

The next scheduled meeting of the Fed is this week - Jan. 30. Although no one knows for sure what their action will be - I feel another 50 basis point cut is in the offing. I think that's what the market is expecting also.

Anyway, that'll teach me not to go off on a tropical island without an internet connection and not being able to watch the market each day! Murphy's Law strikes again.

As usual, there are a handful of nice charts even in a dismal market. Looking good - at least for now - are some of the Coal stocks. Tickers like FDG, ICO, JRCC and NCOC come to mind.

But I've found an interesting setup on a small medical products company that was up huge on great volume last Friday. This stock took a near 10-bagger run last October, and it may be warming up for a similar run here. I'm about to name the company to my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Service Members.

Daily market Comments - January 14, 2008  8:39 PM

Wow! We're off to a good start this week - and my last ARM Play was up 41.38% today on humongous volume!

Good ole IBM.

The company ignited a Tech rally - along with the rest of the market - today with a bang-up earnings report. At the end of the day, the DJIA was up almost 172 points, or 1.36%, while the tech-laden Nasdaq did a tad better - up over 38 points, or 1.57%.

Also adding gasoline to the fire were rumors that the Fed is thinking about taking some preemptive action and cutting interest rates even before their next meeting, scheduled for the end of this month.

All in all, a good way to start the week!

Ag Chemical stocks have been red hot for quite some time, and today they exploded to the upside on the report of continued strong demand as far as the eye can see for all things agricultural.

And with my latest play in that sector up over 41% today alone, I'm scrambling for other names in that sector - especially ones that seem to be "undiscovered" so far.

I've found a "doozy", and I'm about to name the company to my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Service Members. The company is also based in China! China stocks have not exactly been "slackers" themselves lately, so I think this stock is about to join its much more well-known older brothers, and continue to explode to the upside itself (it was up almost 16% today on the biggest buying volume since its IPO).

Daily market Comments - January 13, 2008  10:14 PM

No doubt about it, this is one tough market...

If you are trying to trade in this market and not making much headway, don't worry - you're not alone.

This is the most treacherous market I've seen in quite some time. "Choppy" is an understatement. Great breakouts are taken out and shot the next day. Trade setups that would be slam dunks in a better market are not working for the most part. And former leaders of the market are violating their uptrends and getting sold off - some severely.

So for the most part, I think you should simply be mostly in cash right now.

Having said that, there are handfuls of stocks and stock sectors actually making new all-time highs, even in this horrible market. You just have to do a lot more work to find them. But rest assured, they are out there.

One of the sectors that - at least so far - has not succumbed to brutal profit-taking is the Agricultural Chemical sector. I'm about to name a small-cap stock to my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Premium Service Members in that sector that has literally exploded lately, and was up 21% Friday while the rest of the market was melting down.

Daily market Comments - January 10, 2008  9:29 PM

Gentle Ben comes to the rescue again!

Well, for awhile it looked like the bears were taking over the market again, with the DJIA and the Nas both cratering on the open.

But the indexes bounced back, and meandered around the zero level for a few hours.

But then Fed Chief Gentle Ben Bernanke came to the rescue!

Stocks had been looking vulnerable to another push lower when the market got a look Bernanke's speech.

He was slated to speak at 1 p.m. EST, but his remarks were released around 12:15. The market has interpreted his message like this: Expect more interest-rate cuts. The fed funds futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade priced in a 94% chance of a half-point rate cut when the fed meets Jan. 30. And rumors are already out of another half point cut by May.

That news, along with the Bank of America making comments about taking over ailing Countrywide Financial (CFC), boosted the Finance-Mortgage & Related Services group, and provided "just what the doctor ordered" for a good day in the market.

Hey! That's two good days in a row! Haven't seen that in awhile!

And how about this? The battered Airlines group FLEW today (pun intended of course) on news that some of the majors may be about to merge.

All in all, a nice day to be long in the market, and something not seen in quite some time.

Well, it's my wife Barbara's birthday today, and we are about to go out to dinner. So I'll wrap this one up.

And the Nasdaq streak ends at eight days...

Until Wednesday, the Nasdaq had been down eight days in a row.

I stumbled on some market trivia related to that. I found out that the Nas has only been down eight days in a row 38 times over the past 36 years. And there's good news for the bulls. Three months after the drop, the Nasdaq traded higher 58% of the time. That's a little better than even odds. Six months later, the Nasdaq was up 79% of the time.

Wednesday's market action was almost a mirror image of Tuesday's. In the previous session, we had a market that looked great all day long, and then cratered in the last hour of trading. Wednesday's market showed a pop in the morning, with a quick rollover right on schedule, but this time - a nice run-up in the last hour of trading.

With that kind of action, obviously you're going to see lots of Hammer bottoms, both in the major index charts and in tons of individual stock charts. That's exactly what we're seeing, and bodes well for at least a playable, extremely oversold bounce here.

But I'm also seeing lots of great base breakout charts, some to new all-time highs. That's very surprising in the current market environment. And I'm seeing those in some new sectors other than the Golds and Independent Oil & Gas companies. Add to those sectors the Utes (Electric Utilities - flight to quality?), Biotechs, Drugs, Medical Equipment and other Health related industries, and Education. The Red Chips (some of the larger China-based companies) also did very well Wednesday, with lots of great charts in that area.

One of the other sectors still doing well in this dismal market environment is the Alternative Energy sector - especially the Solars. But there is another subsector within that major industry that is starting to get lots of buying lately with the price of crude oil sky high.

I've found a recent IPO of a China-based company in the non-Solar area that made a 30% 3-day move lately before pulling back. Its chart formed an ARM Wednesday, and I think it may be about to explode to the upside once again. I'm about to name that stock for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Members.

Daily market Comments - January 08, 2008  6:53 PM

Well, we were looking pretty good until the last hour of trading...

The market looked great for most of the day today.

It looked like a picture-perfect "Turnaround Tuesday", with nice Morning Star reversal bottoming patterns setting up on the DJIA and Nasdaq index charts.

But in the last hour of trading, the bottom fell out of the market, once again.

The catalyst this time seemed to be more bad news from the subprime mortgage front as rumors started circulating that Countrywide Financial, the biggest of the subprime mortgage companies still surviving, was about to be forced into bankruptcy.

While company spokesmen denied the rumor, it didn't matter. Skittish traders abandoned the market in droves, sending the DJIA down another 238 points, and the Nasdaq down worse percentage-wise, almost 59 points.

So much for Turnaround Tuesday.

One of the few sectors doing well in this dismal market environment are the biotech and drug sectors. I found a stock that exploded today, due to news of a lawsuit originally filed in 2003 being dismissed. This action bodes well for this small drug company, and I'm about to name that stock for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Members.

Daily market Comments - January 07, 2008  10:13 PM

Are you ready for "Turnaround Tuesday"?

The market looked for most of the day like it was just another typical day reflecting recent market action - a pop in the morning, and then a swoon and lower close by the afternoon.

But in the last twenty minutes of trading, a funny thing happened.

Both the Dow and the Nas went ballistic - with the Dow up over 100 points in just 15 minutes. Some of us enjoyed watching the QID, which is an ETF that's ultra-short the Nasdaq, crash in that same time span.

This bodes well for the overdue oversold bounce I've been expecting for a few days now. The Dow chart is showing a Spinning Top off of recent short-term support, and the Nas' chart shows a well-formed Hammer below recent support. A 2% drop in the price of crude oil helped too. So we could indeed see another "Turnaround Tuesday" tomorrow, and at least a short-term bounce back to the upside for the markets.

Biotech and drug stocks are coming to life all of a sudden. I'm finding a few very nice charts in that sector tonight, and I've found an RSVP on a small biotech stock that may explode even more tomorrow, after a near-40% move today. I'm about to name that stock for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Members.

Daily market Comments - January 06, 2008  6:06 PM

We may have just entered a bear market, and recession is in the air...

The stock market took a drubbing Friday, to say the least.

The DJIA withered over 256 points, or almost 2%, and the Nasdaq did much worse, cratering almost 4% and close to 100 points. The main reason for the shellacking seems to be the dismal jobs report that came out Friday. Instead of the expected 70,000 jobs created, the actual reported number came out as an abysmal 18,000. Not at all what the market wanted to hear, and the data merely fanned the recession fears already in the air.

The markets never really had a chance, gapping down on the open - and it was all downhill from there, except for an anemic little rally attempt around the noon hour EST. Especially worrisome in my mind is the Nas, since Friday's action nullified the recent upward trend of higher lows, and took out the recent low formed on November 26, 2007. That kind of action oftentimes means a bear market is in process.

There are a couple of rays of light, however. Recent market action obviously has the Fed concerned, and certain market prognosticators are now forecasting a full half percentage point rate reduction at the Fed's next meeting on January 30. Rumors are also out there saying the Fed could intervene even sooner. That kind of Fed action could cause a 300-400 point bounce in the Dow.

Will the Fed's action be "too little, too late" as usual? Only time will tell, but I'm now betting on a mild recession lasting just a few months, with a possible summer bounce in the stock market, and a recovery later in the year.

Also, the markets are about as oversold as you can get without a crash, so we could actually see a nice oversold bounce either tomorrow or on "Turnaround Tuesday."

And even in a market meltdown, there is always a handful of stocks that defy all "market logic", refuse to buy into the bear market scenario, and march to the beat of their own drummers.

I think I've found such a company, and price and volume action have been going ballistic to the upside lately. The stock was up over 18% Friday, for example. I'm about to name that stocks for my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Members.

Daily market Comments - January 05, 2008  5:55 PM

Who else wants to make 35% in one day, on a stock that was up 44% the day before?

You could have done that on Thursday if you were a Member of my Trade Your Way To Wealth premium service - the Baffle / RSVP / ARM Plays.

I'm not going to name the stock here, since it wouldn't be fair to my paying Members. But I'll give you a clue - it's in the "red-hot" Solar stock sector. I think the stock has much more profit ahead too.

The market recovered somewhat on Thursday from its New Year's hangover, but I expected more of a bounce than we got. But the market is tremendously oversold, so maybe the bounce comes later on a good jobs report.

The Ag Chem stocks were on fireThursday as Monsanto (MON) blew away earnings estimates. This is another sector that's been red-hot for quite some time, and I expect that not to change in the near future.

Another hot sector is the Heavy Construction Equipment area. Several stocks in that industry are making all-time highs. And exploding along with the Ag Chem sector is the Farm Equipment area.

So what would happen if you found a company that specialized in selling both Farm and Heavy Construction equipment? Chances are you would be looking at a mighty fine investment.

I've found such a company, and sales and earnings are indeed going ballistic. It's a fairly new issue, so hardly anyone knows about it yet. But my Baffle / RSVP / ARM Play Members soon will.

Daily market Comments - January 02, 2008  11:59 PM

Happy New Year! The stock market must still have a hangover though...

Well, history was made today. Not the kind we particularly get excited about though.

It was the worst one-day point decline in history for the DJIA on a new year's opening session. That's not what we call "getting the year off to a good start."

The major stock indexes had posted modest gains at the start of the session, but quickly reversed course in the wake of data from the ISM (Institute of Supply Management), which reported its manufacturing index for December fell to 47.7, its weakest reading in more than four years.

$100 oil did not exactly help matters either. Nor did the near-record price of gold. That data merely fanned the already simmering inflation fears of nervous investors.

However, there were pockets of strength in several sectors. You can probably guess what they were from clues I've given above.

Most of the charts of Gold and Silver stocks were gorgeous today. And the Independent Oil & Gas sector showed some beauties as well, with lots of 6-month and 12-month highs there. Finally, with $100 oil now a reality, Solar stocks continued to be hot (pun intended as usual).